Risk Management and Black Swans
Risk is inherent in life. We internally and unconsciously assess risk every day.
And this is a very good aspect of our brains. It keeps us alive. It’s what keeps us from pulling out in front of large trucks or strolling through traffic or jumping off rooftops.
And sure, there are those who do pull out in front of trucks and stroll through traffic and jump off roofs. They have a higher tolerance for risky behavior. Sometimes to the point of foolishness or insanity.
But there are folks whose internal risk assessment meters go bonkers at the thought of driving on an interstate highway or stepping into an airplane. Even though you’re statistically less likely to die in one of those circumstances than on the road that leads to your home.
Risk management is important from an informational and decision-making perspective. But risk management gone too far also creates black swans.
Your internal risk management could be overly robust.
Stepping into a conversation which might lead to an important relationship. You might be rejected. Or thought odd. Or feel awkward.
But you won’t die. And you might not be rejected, thought odd or feel awkward.
Pitching an article to your local paper or an online magazine or the New Yorker. You might get rejected. In fact, initially, you probably will.
But you won’t die. And you might be accepted. You will never be accepted if you don't pitch.
Building a website (or opening an Etsy shop) to sell your eco-friendly wooden toothbrushes. There’s a possibility no one will buy your thing.
But you won’t die. And people might really want your thing.
Or you might learn something about management, or writing, or leadership, or creativity, or sales.
And you’ll be better positioned for the next try.
I often wonder how many beautiful things have never happened because of the black swans I’ve created.
We need a more balanced and realistic approach to risk management.